OPINION:
The conflict between Iran and the United States has moved into a new and potentially deadly phase. This latest round of tension was accentuated with the attack by Iran of two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump responded by building the American military presence in the region to send a clear message to Iran to avoid military confrontation. Iran missed the point.
On June 20, Iran shot down a U.S. Navy unmanned surveillance aircraft over the Persian Gulf in a provocative move that invited an American response. Observers were certain this would result in a U.S. military strike on Iranian targets in the region.
But when that retaliation was imminent, the president pulled back. His critics in the media — who reliably call him a warmonger — now say he blinked in the face of Iranian aggression. He did not blink. He thought, the very thing strategic leaders do when crafting a proper response to provocative acts by enemy forces.
American sanctions on Iran are working. Imposing them after Mr. Trump ended the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) caused Iran’s economy to plummet. Unrest in the country is rising and with it pressure on Iran’s terror mullahs to maintain control and, ultimately, their power over the people there.
Responding to the pressure, Iran lashed out with its attack of a U.S. drone, hoping to get America to respond militarily. That military response, which would have been deadly accurate, would also have caused much death and destruction. Moreover, it would have also played nicely into the hands of the mullahs who would be quick to rouse the passions of the people to justify further Iranian aggression.
To the president’s credit, he saw the situation clearly. He had his position clearly staked out with rising pressure that caused Iran to act imprudently. The president’s response was prudence, seeking to maintain his advantage — now as an aggrieved nation restraining itself from armed conflict when it was fully justified in responding militarily. And the president’s choice? Like a python gripping prey, Mr. Trump has applied yet more pressure in the form of additional sanctions.
The latest round of punishment is aimed at denying Iran’s leadership access to financial resources, while blocking them from the U.S. financial system or having access to their assets in the United States. It will surely result in more pain for the Iranian leadership, who have placed Iran and its beleaguered population — people who are weary of deprivation — on a collision course with the United States. The president isn’t blinking; he’s thinking.
A principle in military strategy is to reinforce success. That means continue to apply pressure where it is working and that is precisely what the president has done. His decision not to escalate now was an effort to demonstrate to Iran’s petulant leadership that the American quiver is filled with many arrows.
The president’s use of a targeted cyber intrusion in recent days to disrupt Iran’s infrastructure has shown them there is no limit to how the United States can require a steep price for bad behavior. Coupled with the newest round of sanctions, Iran’s leaders are now struggling over what to do in response. But like the prey in the clutches of a python, the more the unfortunate victim struggles, the tighter the python grips it. The United States is squeezing the life out of the Iranian economy, and by extension, the viability of the mullah dictator.
It is likely that Iran will once again respond militarily. If their reaction invites a military response by the United States, those strikes can and will likely have devastating results. Iran is — as the military terms it — a target-rich environment.
From military assets on or near the Persian Gulf, to Iranian terror surrogates in Lebanon, Syria and other areas throughout the Middle East, to strategic targets like military headquarters and oil infrastructure, Iran is greatly exposed. A coordinated attack by the United States would be devastatingly accurate. Mr. Trump knows this. So, too, does Iran’s supreme leader, who may have stumbled onto the inconvenient truth that Mr. Trump has boxed him in badly.
This week, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei admitted that “If we agree in negotiations to their demands, they will make the nation miserable and if we don’t, they will go on creating political frenzy, fueling propaganda and applying pressure.”
Iran says it will start enriching uranium at a higher levels in July. Such a move will be yet another provocation as Iran continues its brinkmanship strategy. This would be unwise. Any move toward overt proliferation — a very dangerous action — will not only have the attention of the United Stats, but Israel as well. In the meantime, the mullahs are both vexed and perplexed. What will the United States do next? A visit to the Tehran Zoological Garden reptile house during feeding time might answer that question.
• L. Scott Lingamfelter, a retired U.S. Army colonel, combat veteran and Middle East Foreign Area officer, served in the Virginia General Assembly.
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