Sen. Kamala D. Harris had never set foot in New Hampshire until Monday, when she made her first foray as a presidential candidate, hoping to make a strong impression on the state that could make or break her aspirations.
She promised all the right things to the left-wing audience, including a progressive agenda of Medicare-for-all, universal background checks on gun purchases, and a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally, and said she plans to respect New Hampshire’s role in the primary process.
“I intend to compete in New Hampshire,” the California Democrat told voters at a church in Portsmouth. “I intend to spend time here. I intend to shake every hand that I possibly can. I want to talk with you. I want to listen to you. I want to be challenged by you.”
The state’s primary is slated for nearly a year from now, and the 2020 potential field has already begun flooding in.
“The graveyard is filled with presidential candidates who thought they could skip or de-emphasize Iowa and New Hampshire,” said Charlie Cook, of the Cook Political Report. “The fact is, the road to a presidential nomination go through both Iowa and New Hampshire and no detours work.”
Iowa traditionally kicks off the primary season with its caucuses, which include a relatively small percentage of the state’s voters. New Hampshire follows with the first primary, opening the voting up to a wider population.
Together, the two states usually winnow the field and, if they go for the same candidate, often create an unstoppable front-runner.
Some analysts have wondered whether those states will be as important in 2020, with Texas and California moving their delegate-rich primaries to Super Tuesday. California will allow absentee voting a month before an election, meaning voters will be casting live ballots there even as Iowa and New Hampshire are holding their contests.
But the number of candidates heading to New Hampshire suggests the state will remain a fulcrum of the process.
State Sen. Martha Fuller Clark, co-chairwoman of the state Democratic Party, said New Hampshire gives more candidates a chance to battle in a low-cost state, compared to expensive campaigning via TV and online ads in Texas and California.
“Here they get to meet real people in real communities and talk over with them the issue that those voters are concerned about,” Ms. Clark said. “It is a great training ground if you wish for anyone who wants to go ahead and run.”
The late Sen. John McCain’s victory in the GOP primary in 2008 was an example of that. With his campaign struggling for cash, he ignored Iowa and went full bore in New Hampshire, winning there and then riding the wave all the way to the GOP nomination.
“You get a lot more for your buck in [New Hampshire] than anywhere else,” said Democratic state Rep. Skip Cleaver of Nashua.
The state has also thrown some stunning curve balls.
Then-Sen. Barack Obama appeared to be gaining steam with an impressive Iowa caucus victory in 2008, only to see then-Sen. Hillary Clinton recapture momentum on the eve of the vote, helping her reverse the tide and win the state.
That led to the longest primary battle in decades, with Mr. Obama finally emerging as the winner six months later.
One wild card for Democrats this year is whether either Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is running, and Sen. Bernard Sanders, who is expected to run, will get a home court advantage. Ms. Warren represents Massachusetts and Mr. Sanders represents Vermont — two of New Hampshire’s three bordering states.
They, along with former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, who also is considering a run, are the most well-known in the prospective field, according to a recent New Hampshire Institute of Politics poll.
Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said that puts pressure on the two locals.
“One would think that a failure to perform well in New Hampshire would be a blow to Sanders or Warren, particularly because they don’t have obvious advantages in Nevada or South Carolina,” he said. “These early contests help winnow the field, and I suspect New Hampshire will play a similar role in 2020.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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