BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) - Tax collections in North Dakota this year have been exceeding economic estimates, but the state’s treasurer is still urging caution.
State Treasurer Kelly Schmidt told the Bismarck Tribune last week that General Fund revenues from biennium-to-date are more than 2 percent higher than projected. Surging oil and extraction tax revenue is 72 percent higher than what was forecast for June, according to a Legislative Council report.
The Legacy Fund, derived from nearly a third of oil and gas tax revenue, received a $58.8 million deposit last month, its largest since February 2015.
But Schmidt cautions that the forecast from last year was a conservative one.
“I know that what goes up can go down, and we’ve seen it before,” she said.
Last year’s legislative forecast based on 925,000 daily barrels at $47 a barrel was “definitely conservative,” but “reasonable at the time,” said Joe Morrissette, director of the Office of Management and Budget.
Morrissette said there’s still a lot of forecasting left for the 2017-19 biennium and edging into 2019-21. The Advisory Council on Revenue Forecasting, an informal group of 20 state and industry leaders, will review preliminary figures from Moody’s Analytics this month, with the new forecast to come in August.
“We know that we want to be as current as we can,” Morrissette said.
The interim Legislative Revenue Advisory Council has hired IHS Global to get a separate forecast in September because Moody’s “has been off quite a bit” in previous forecasts, said Joan Heckaman, Democratic Senate minority leader.
Republican Sen. Rich Wardner said the recent revenue trends are promising, but that lawmakers should be cautious in priorities. He pointed to increases in state employees’ salaries, issues regarding addiction and local infrastructure needs as significant focus points.
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Information from: Bismarck Tribune, http://www.bismarcktribune.com
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