MINOT, N.D. (AP) - Long range prognosticators have arrived at their best predictions for what the upcoming winter weather will be like in the months ahead. It is guesswork, to be sure, but there’s some basis to long-range forecasting as well.
The Minot Daily News reported (https://bit.ly/2deDBuq ) that a few months ago indicators were that North Dakota would experience a colder than usual winter with above average snowfall. However, the Climate Prediction Center has canceled a La Nina watch that was the primary culprit responsible for somewhat dire weather predictions. La Nina is a cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that can lead to tough winters and generally follows an El Nino, which is credited with gracing North Dakota with an extremely mild winter a year ago.
The CPC isn’t entirely convinced that La Nina will stay away. They refer to it as “not active” and are holding onto the possibility that La Nina could still form before spring. If it does, it will likely lead to colder than usual temperatures in our region.
So, what’s the outlook? Well, that depends on the source. As always long-range forecasting is subject to change. The CPC updates their 30-day and long-range outlooks every month.
Some people still rely on the Old Farmer’s Almanac when preparing for winter. The 2017 Almanac calls for about normal precipitation for our region this winter with no hint of an overabundance of snow. As for temperatures, the Almanac says November will average about two degrees above normal, December five degrees below normal and January 2017 a whopping eight degrees below average. The Almanac’s February 2017 prediction calls for an average temperature of two degrees less than normal.
Does the National Weather Service agree? Maybe. Maybe not, but the NWS is in the business of gathering weather data on a daily basis as opposed to the Old Farmer’s Almanac which relies on such things as the moon, stars and planets when issuing its yearly weather outlooks.
The CPC three-month outlook for October-December is reasonably certain that the Minot region will see warmer than normal temperatures during that period to go along with normal precipitation. Then things begin to change a bit, mostly because of the threat that La Nina could become a reality and cause a fuss.
Although it’s a long way out and subject to change, the CPC has the northern tier of North Dakota in their “below normal” temperature outlook for January-March. How much below normal, if at all, cannot be answered with certainty. What is certain is past records compiled by the NWS.
The normal average temperature for Minot in January is 12.2 degrees, the mid-point between the average daily high of 20.9 degrees and the average overnight low of 3.5 degrees. February’s average high is 25.4 degrees and average low is 8.6 degrees for an overall average of 17 degrees. Both months have the potential to bring chilling cold.
The record low for January in Minot is minus 47, for February minus 49. In addition, January has the distinction of having 10 days with records of 40 below or colder. February has six such days.
The next long-range outlook by the CPC will be issued Oct. 20. The first day of autumn was Sept. 22. The first day of winter doesn’t officially arrive until Dec. 21.
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Information from: Minot Daily News, https://www.minotdailynews.com
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