PHILADELPHIA — On the first day of the Democratic National Convention, the statistics website FiveThirtyEight had some bad news for Democrats, predicting for the first time that Donald Trump would win the presidency if the election were held today.
That said, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight also maintained that Democrat Hillary Clinton is still favored over the long term.
The site’s “now cast” gave Mr. Trump the edge over Mrs. Clinton by 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent by throwing toss-up states Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania into his column.
The “now cast” predicts how the race would pan out if the vote were held that day. Until Monday, Mrs. Clinton had led the “now cast” on every day since the forecasts began June 8.
The shake-up comes days after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, which has given Mr. Trump a bump in the polls.
The site’s long-term forecast shows Mrs. Clinton leading Mr. Trump by 58.2 to 41.7 percent. She has not trailed in the long-term forecast since June 8.
The Democratic National Convention gavels in Monday night and wraps up Thursday at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.
• Valerie Richardson can be reached at vrichardson@washingtontimes.com.
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