A new poll on the 2016 presidential election finds that the two political frontrunners share remarkably high “name recognition” — and very high “unfavorable” ratings.
This means that if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump become the standard-bearers for their parties, many voters will end up pulling the lever for whoever they think is the “lesser of two evils,” Ed Goeas, president and CEO of The Tarrance Group, said on an invitation-only Monday conference call, moderated by David Keene, opinion and editorial editor of The Washington Times and president of the Times’ Insights Club.
Some 47 percent of voters say they will vote Democrat in November, compared with 41 percent who will vote Republican and 13 percent who are undecided, said the just-released George Washington University Battleground Poll, which is conducted by Mr. Goeas and Celinda Lake, a respected Democrat pollster who heads Lake Research Partners.
This is a reversal of views seen in January 2014, when 43 percent of voters said they would vote Republican, 41 percent said they would vote Democrat and 16 percent were undecided.
Mr. Goeas told Insights Club members that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump had virtually 100 percent name recognition — but unusually high “unfavorable” ratings: Fifty-six percent of voters did not think highly of Mrs. Clinton (compared with 42 percent who viewed her favorably), while Mr. Trump racked up a record 65 percent unfavorable views (compared with 32 percent favorable views).
Among the other candidates, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz also had a strong, 55 percent unfavorable rating, compared with a 34 percent favorable rating.
However, both Republican Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Democrat Sen. Bernie Sanders got more nods than noes: Mr. Kasich had 45 percent favorability, compared with 29 percent unfavorability, while Mr. Sanders had the highest favorability rating — 49 percent — compared with 44 percent unfavorable.
Two other findings in the poll are that a large majority of voters — 66 percent — still believe the nation has “gotten off on the wrong track,” while 26 percent believe it is going “in the right direction” and 8 percent are unsure.
Also, when asked if the next president should “mostly continue the policies of President Obama” or “take the country in a difference direction,” 60 percent asked for a new direction, while 35 percent said stay the course. Another 5 percent were unsure.
Mr. Goeas noted, in response to questions from Insights Club members, that the May 3 Indiana Republican primary is the one to watch — if Mr. Trump wins that state, then “I think he is on a path to get the nomination,” he said. However, if Mr. Trump loses that primary, then the discussions about a brokered convention are likely to intensify, he said.
The next major George Washington University Battleground Poll is likely to be released after the potentially decisive June 7 primaries, Mr. Goeas said. California, with 475 Democrat delegates and 172 Republican delegates, is the biggest prize, with smaller delegate tallies in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. North Dakota Democrats also vote that day.
An audio recording of the event is available to Insights Club members.
• Cheryl Wetzstein is manager of special sections for TWT Media Group.
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