OPINION:
What with Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina already knee-deep in their presidential bids, some wonder what the chances are for non-politicians who pursue the presidency. History has not been so kind.
“In short, aside from a handful of war heroes, presidential candidates who have never previously held political office have a very thin record of success,” reports Eric Ostermeier, a University of Minnesota political professor who painstakingly surveyed presidential elections over the last two centuries.
He found more than 75 instances in which notable “political outsiders” either ran for president or received major party convention votes. Three won the presidency and four others garnered a major party nomination but lost anyway. The three winners were all former Army men: Zachary Taylor, Ulysses Grant, and Dwight Eisenhower.
And on the also-ran crew won won a nomination but lost, and Major Generals all: Winfield Scott in 1852, a Whig; George McClellan in 1864, a Democrat; Winfield Scott Hancock in 1880, a Democrat; plus utility executive Wendell Willkie in 1940, a Republican).
Time marches on - and times get tougher, too.
“In the direct primary era, the number of political outsiders running for the White House has increased, but success has waned, as has the number of campaigns by military figures,” Mr. Ostermeier says. “After the election of Eisenhower, the last political outsider with a military background to launch a major party presidential bid was Democratic General Wesley Clark who won one primary in the 2004 race - Oklahoma.”
See the complete study here
• Jennifer Harper can be reached at jharper@washingtontimes.com.
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