TIM CONSTANTINE: 2016 presidential race is anything but ordinary

2016 Presidential Race: Anything but Ordinary
As soon as the 2014 midterm elections were complete the media turned an eye toward 2016 and the presidential race. With a two-year window, pundits gleefully declared that Hillary Rodham Clinton was inevitable as the Democratic nomination and that Jeb Bush was the likely Republican nominee.

The American public collectively groaned. Tired of politics as usual, poll after poll showed the American people were not enthusiastic about another ballot featuring the name Clinton and the name Bush. Yet the mainstream media persisted. It was essentially a done deal.

Now, less than one year before the respective 2016 party conventions, conventional wisdom seems to have been turned on its head. Self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders, the senator of Vermont, is drawing tens of thousands of Democratic supporters while Mrs. Clinton struggles to attract a crowd and refuses to talk with the media. Mr. Sanders is actually beating Mrs. Clinton in polls in the first-primary state of New Hampshire, where local party leaders are declining to endorse Mrs. Clinton.

Vice President Joe Biden, seeing Mrs. Clinton’s repeated campaign stumbles and the political reality of her home-brewed email server scandal, appears to be ready to jump in and may be uniquely positioned to rocket to the lead.

Bottom line, Mrs. Clinton not only isn’t inevitable, her campaign is in real trouble. Political campaigns are often determined by momentum and she has established an amazing downward spiral.

Mr. Bush, former governor of Florida governor, was never termed inevitable, but was pegged by many to be the man to beat. In a field of 17, however, his numbers have never taken off. At this point in the 2000 GOP race, George W. Bush had 56 percent support among likely Republican voters. Jeb is mired in the 10 percent range.

Enter billionaire businessman Donald Trump. Mr. Trump’s no-holds-barred style and complete lack of political correctness has turned the party on its ear. He has pointed out the charismatically challenged Bush is a “low energy guy.” Political newcomer Ben Carson is actually polling higher than Mr. Bush in many polls.

If Hillary and Jeb haven’t been anointed, who is in and who is out at this point? On the Democratic side, Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chaffee are done before they’ve even started. Mr. Chaffee has become the butt of an ongoing joke on the Conan O’Brien show, where the late-night comic has set a goal of getting the Rhode Island pol above 1 percent in the polls. If that’s not a dead campaign, it’s tough to think what is.

Among the Republicans, there are several dead-on-arrival candidates. Rick Santorum, George Pataki and Lindsey Graham have no chance at all. Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry are both very well qualified, yet both will be watching from the sidelines next year. None of those five ever registered any meaningful numbers in the polls.

The sixth name on the GOP “out” list is more surprising. Rand Paul’s campaign is fading away. While the senator is likely to stay in for a couple more debates, several missteps plus a poor first debate have all but assured he will be the incumbent on the ballot in Kentucky next fall.

The 2016 race is turning out to be a fascinating one. Will it all shake out and settle down to a more traditional look by February in time for the primary season? Buckle up, sit back, relax and enjoy the ride. No one really knows.