Inside the Beltway: Six factors that make Trump a winner or a loser

NEWS AND OPINION:

Critics are constantly on the lookout to determine the exact moment when Donald Trump is no longer the Republican presidential front-runner. They have whetted their appetites in anticipation. That moment has yet to arrive, however. Mr. Trump continues to dominate favorability polls and draw giddy audiences, even as the ever-anxious analysts keep producing likely scenarios for the Donald denouement — which, again, does not look imminent. The candidate is just too nimble, immediately reacting to the plunging stock market with a tweet: “As I have long stated, we are so tied in with China and Asia that their markets are now taking the U.S. market down. Get smart U.S.A.”

Like the man himself, the Trump candidacy is a complicated phenomenon, and its success and persistence have confounded many. National Review columnist Jim Geraghty identifies six different factors at work — the three factors pushing Mr. Trump forward in his quest, and the three that are holding him back.

The three positives: Mr. Trump dominates the airwaves. He also has “gaffe immunity” before a public that welcomes his piquant observations. The candidate may also have “scandal immunity,” Mr. Geraghty says. And third, Mr. Trump has set the mark for his Republican and Democratic rivals by fearlessly proclaiming that American is losing touch with founding values, basic sensibility and good cheer — articulating the thoughts of millions.

But, alas, there are three things which don’t work so well for Mr. Trump. One, he’s been a celebrity for decades and could at one point wear out his welcome, Mr. Geraghty observes. Two, he still has some “fervent Republican opposition” brewing in those oft-quoted polls. And, last but not least, there’s the 3 a.m. phone call.

“Who advises Mr. Trump on military policy?” the columnist wonders. “Perhaps no one, really,” he concludes.

A CHANGE COMES OVER JOE BIDEN

Let the dot-connecting begin: It’s been some 72 hours since news first surfaced that Vice President Joseph R. Biden met with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, followed by revelations that he had hired a new spokeswoman and flirted with Democratic fundraisers. A new narrative about Mr. Biden was instantly born, followed by considerable squawking and honking in the press flock and some strutting and pawing among political strategists of many persuasions. Now we come to phase two, otherwise known as what-it-all-means. Phase three will be a reality check as journalists center themselves for a spell, followed by phase four, where the principal subjects actually make a statement and confirm or deny something, anything.

Then it all begins again.

Such things aside, here are the headlines to consider as Mr. Biden takes care of business in the nation’s capital on Tuesday until President Obama returns in the evening from an overnight speaking engagement and private fundraiser in Las Vegas:

“Release the Biden” (Fark.com), “The biggest divide between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren (NPR), “Amid Biden deliberations, White House leaves door open to Obama primary endorsement” (Fox News), “Top Democratic fundraisers invited to meet with Joe Biden at Naval Observatory” (Washington Post), “Joe Scarborough essentially writes Joe Biden’s first campaign speech” (Huffington Post), “Why Biden running could actually help Hillary Clinton (MSNBC), “White House: Joe Biden would make competent president” (Breitbart News), “Timing key as Biden enters make-or-break September (Bloomberg), “Clinton insider slams Biden’s track record of losing (New York Post).

And where is Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton? Why, it’s business as usual, and she’s returning to Iowa, of course. Mrs. Clinton will be talking up agriculture and rural culture in Ankeny on Wednesday, do some speechifying at a college in Sioux City and oversee a grass-roots organizing event at a winery in Baldwin.

MR. COLBERT PICKS HIS GUESTS

CBS has revealed the very first guests on Stephen Colbert’s very first show when he debuts as host of “Late Night,” the longtime domain of David Letterman, who retired in May. The two stars who will be appearing exactly two weeks from Tuesday: George Clooney and Jeb Bush.

And, of course, there’s a survey for everything, even this unlikely pairing. A Harris Poll of 2,039 U.S. adults released earlier this month found that Mr. Clooney would best Mr. Bush in a theoretical presidential match-up; 57 percent of the respondents chose the actor, 43 percent the Republican hopeful. Among other things, Mr. Clooney is marketing his own brand of tequila, but that’s another story.

Mr. Bush, meanwhile, is raffling off a ticket to the show to one lucky fan, advising potential winners: “To get a VIP ticket to the very first taping of the ’Late Show’ with a new host, that’s something you’ll still be talking about 20 years from now.”

MR. MURDOCH PICKS A CANDIDATE

Four sequential tweets on Monday from media mogul Rupert Murdoch provide some telling insight into the thoughts of an 84-year-old billionaire and political kingmaker. And here they are:

Tweet No. 1: With Trump becoming very serious candidate, it’s time for next billionaire candidate, Mike Bloomberg to step into ring. Greatest mayor.

No. 2: Agree much about Bloomberg, nannystate, etc, but still a great philanthropic executive who, with Guiliani, made NY the greatest.

No. 3: I did not say I would vote for him! Just a friend I admire.

No. 4: Far away from world’s troubles here on Great Barrier Reef swimming and reading. Seems irresponsible.

NEWS FROM ELSEWHERE

Now ready to ship to citizens concerned their privacy is at stake in an increasing drone-friendly culture: Snake River Shooting Products has just introduced Drone Munition.

“Prepare for the Drone Apocalypse,” the Idaho-based company warns in its first ad for the new product, which they describe as a “12 gauge 3-inch shot shell solution aimed at defending against drone-based privacy concerns and terror.” The foes here are lightweight quad-copters, which can carry cameras and are increasingly making the news when they are misused in neighborhoods, at airports and public places.

“Drone Munition was created to provide defense against the danger caused when drones are misused. Drone Munition is lead free, safe for the environment and provides a very high quality load that will effectively disable a drone encroaching [on] your property’s airspace. As a side note, the round also makes for a very high end hunting load for ducks, geese or turkeys,” the manufacturer notes in its description.

POLL DU JOUR

• 28 percent of Americans say that when President Obama leaves office, he will be remembered as an “about average” president; 18 percent of Republicans, 31 percent of independents and 30 percent of Democrats agree.

• 22 percent say he will be remembered as an “above average” president; 8 percent of Republicans, 20 percent of independents and 36 percent of Democrats agree.

• 21 percent say he will be remembered as “one of the worst presidents”; 48 percent of Republicans, 22 percent of independents and 4 percent of Democrats agree.

• 17 percent say Mr. Obama will be remembered as a “below average” president; 26 percent of Republicans, 18 percent of independents and 8 percent of Democrats agree.

• 10 percent say he will be remembered as “one of the best presidents”; 0 percent of Republicans, 8 percent of independents and 20 percent of Democrats agree.

Source: A McClatchey/Marist poll of 1,249 U.S. adults conducted July 22-28 and released Monday.

Squawking and honking to jharper@washingtontimes.com