While the Republican Party is poised to make major gains in red states in the battle for the U.S. Senate, the situation is flipped in governors’ races, where Republicans are facing a tough time defending chief executives who won office in blue states in the Obama backlash of 2010.
The toughest races for Republicans are in Maine and Pennsylvania, followed by Wisconsin, Florida and Michigan, where incumbents who won in the tea party wave four years ago are struggling.
It’s the opposite case for the Senate, where Democrats who rode to victory on President Obama’s coattails in 2008 are facing growing fatigue with his agenda.
Analysts said voters might be primed for corrections in both cases.
“The gubernatorial and Senate contests are cyclical and are being conducted on different turf,” said Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “The gubernatorial races are mostly contested every four years during midterms, which means the last time these races were up was in 2010, a great Republican year. It stands to reason that four years later the Republicans might be a bit overextended.”
There are 36 governorships up for grabs in the Nov. 3 elections, and Republicans are defending 22 of them.
PHOTOS: 2014 Midterms: Vulnerable Democrats
Independent handicappers generally agree that 16 races are competitive, and more than half of them are in states that Mr. Obama carried in the 2008 and 2012 elections.
Of those, Govs. Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania, Paul LePage of Maine, Rick Scott of Florida, Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Rick Snyder of Michigan are considered vulnerable.
Democrats also are hoping to topple some red state governors, including Govs. Sam Brownback in Kansas and Nathan Deal, who is operating under the cloud of ethics complaints in Georgia and is facing off against Jason Carter, a grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.
“Democrats are on offense in governors’ races across the country because Republican governors, particularly those who won in blue states in their tea party wave, have gutted funding for education and raised middle-class taxes to pay for giveaways for the wealthiest, big corporations and special interests,” said Danny Kanner, a spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association. “They all ran as non-ideological reformers, but too often have been distracted by their own corrupt cronyism and ethics scandals.”
Republicans, however, believe their party has a chance to win governorships in several blue states, including Mr. Obama’s birthplace of Hawaii, his current home state of Illinois, and Connecticut and Colorado.
Republicans also are expected to win back the Arkansas governorship, a red state where Gov. Mike Beebe, a Democrat, has reached his term limit.
PHOTOS: Republican governors in blue states vulnerable in 2014 midterm elections
Aiding the Republican cause this year is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, head of the Republican Governors Association, who has shattered the group’s fundraising records and helped level the playing field in some of those races.
“Thanks to Gov. Christie’s strong leadership, the RGA’s historic fundraising success will allow us to provide strong support to our governors and candidates across the country, while aggressively pushing back against the public-sector unions and the extreme environmental lobby, which have committed hundreds of millions to the defeat of our candidates,” said Jon Thompson, Republican Governors Association spokesman.
The Democratic Governors Association downplayed the finances.
“While the RGA has always outspent the DGA, we have won eight of the last nine races in which both organizations have competed because we recruit better candidates who share the values of their states and are singularly focused on growing the economy and strengthening the middle class,” Mr. Kanner said.
Whatever the case, with less than 55 days to go until Election Day, some Republican strategists say Mr. Christie, a potential 2016 presidential candidate, is in a win-win situation.
His fundraising prowess is visible, and his position as RGA chairman gives him opportunities to travel to a number of states that have elections this year and are important to the 2016 electoral calendar.
“Generally Gov. Christie will come out of it smelling like a rose regardless of what happens in the November elections,” said Charlie Gerow, a board member of the American Conservative Union. “If some of the marginal candidates lose, well it is because of the particular circumstances that they were confronted with, and it would be viewed as they were expected to lose anyway. But if they win, folks will say, and rightly so, that the heft that Gov. Christie provided, pushed them over the top.”
The Republican Governors Association announced Wednesday that Mr. Christie will travel to Florida on Friday to campaign with Mr. Scott.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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