Kay Hagan up 3 points in North Carolina Senate race: poll

A new poll shows Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan up by 3 points in North Carolina in what could turn out to be the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history.

Ms. Hagan leads Republican Thom Tillis, 46 percent to 43 percent, with Libertarian Sean Haugh taking 5 percent among likely voters.

Some Republicans have been concerned Mr. Haugh could play the role of spoiler in the race, but Ms. Hagan leads Mr. Tillis by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent, in a two-way race, according to the poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP).

“The North Carolina Senate race has always been close,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “But Kay Hagan’s lead has been persistent for six months now.”

The latest average of public polling from RealClearPolitics on the race has Ms. Hagan up by less than a percentage point as both sides marshal resources to compete in the state in the final two weeks of the campaign.

Ms. Hagan has a 12-point lead among women, 49 percent to 37 percent, while Mr. Tillis leads among men by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent.

Mr. Tillis leads among independent voters, 43 percent to 38 percent, and both he and Ms. Hagan have done a solid job consolidating support among their own parties, with more than 80 percent of Democratic and Republican voters supporting the candidate put forth by their respective parties.

A memo accompanying the poll points out that such a breakdown would favor a Democratic candidate, though, given the party’s advantage in voter registration in the state.

The survey of 780 likely voters from Oct. 16-18 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Eighty percent of the interviews were conducted over the phone, and 20 percent were conducted over the Internet to reach voters who don’t have landlines.