Candidates trailing in polls and counting on a boost from late-deciding voters to put them over the top on Election Day probably should be working on concession speeches instead.
Voters who managed either to tune out a nearly yearlong bombardment of TV ads or continue to be dissatisfied with the choice of candidates in the final days of a race likely will skip the election or get swayed by events beyond the control of the candidates, pollsters and political analysts say.
“A sizable portion of the people who on the weekend before the election tell pollsters that they are undecided aren’t going to vote. We know that from history,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
For those who show up, he said, there is “no rhyme or reason” for how they ultimately decide to cast their ballots.
Those who remain undecided in the final days of elections tend to be “low-information” voters who don’t affiliate with any major political parties but identify as independents.
“If they decide to vote, they could be very important,” said Mr. Brown. “It depends on how close it is.”
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In this year’s closest Senate races — those that will determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress — voters who are still undecided make up 2 percent to 6 percent of the electorate. In many cases, they could contribute enough votes to decide the outcome if they break heavily for a particular candidate.
About 6 percent of voters in Kentucky’s Senate race remain undecided. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was leading Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes by 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent, in a Louisville Courier-Journal poll last week.
The Kentucky race is one of the Democrats’ best shots at picking up a Republican-held seat and stopping a turnover of Senate control. Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win majority control of the upper chamber, and three states — Mississippi, South Dakota and West Virginia — are all but certain to flip Republican.
With 5 percent of voters undecided in Iowa’s Senate race, Republican Joni Ernst had a 3-point lead over Democratic Rep. Bruce L. Braley, 48 percent to 45 percent, according to a recent Rasmussen Reports survey. Poll results Monday divided badly: One gave the Republican candidate a 7-percentage-point lead and another called the race a dead heat.
In North Carolina, incumbent Democrat Kay R. Hagan and Republican challenger Thom Tillis were tied at 44 percent in a High Point/Survey USA poll last week, with 5 percent undecided.
“When you get down to undecideds, this to my mind is truly the emotional vote,” said Fran Coombs, managing editor of Rasmussen Reports. “These are the people who, no matter what the facts are — whether you think the president is doing a good job or a bad job, whether you like your incumbent or not — these are the people who basically don’t have a factual analysis of the election. They are going to be driven by an emotional response.”
He said the tendency of late-deciding voters to be influenced by their emotions enhances the power of an “October surprise,” when an unexpected event in the final weeks dramatically alters a race.
Mr. Coombs agreed that undecided voters probably would stay home, especially as their numbers shrink in the final days of the campaign.
“When you are getting down to 1 percent, 2 percent, 3 percent undecided, you are talking about a lot of people who just might not make it to the polls,” he said.
Last-minute push
Campaign strategists, however, refuse to give up on undecided voters and plot to scoop them up with massive get-out-the-vote operations.
“Every vote in these close Senate races counts, and both parties need to do all they can to motivate people to vote,” said Republican political consultant Ron Bonjean.
Still, he acknowledged that motivating the undecided this late in the game is daunting.
“It’s very difficult to win over support from last-minute undecided voters if candidates haven’t reached them yet,” he said. “However, if some Democratic candidates or incumbents are behind, then they must pay attention to the ground game of getting people to the polls, and that means the basic blocking and tackling of knocking on doors and calling them directly.”
Jill Hanauer, a Democratic strategist in Colorado, insisted that a new wave of TV ads and a strong ground game could get undecided voters to close the gap for Sen. Mark Udall.
“This election will be very close, and undecided voters, while small, will be critical,” she said.
Mr. Udall trailed his Republican challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner, by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent, in a Denver Post poll late last week. About 5 percent of potential voters hadn’t made up their minds. A survey Monday from Public Policy Polling put Mr. Gardner’s lead at 3 points.
“Many of these undecided voters are unaffiliated, but our research shows they lean more toward Democrats. Certainly paid media over the weekend, people knocking at doors, social media and GOTV events by the candidates all have impact,” said Ms. Hanauer. “But even though ads have been bombarding the airwaves for almost year, many voters are just [now] paying attention.”
• S.A. Miller can be reached at smiller@washingtontimes.com.
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