California GOP: Conservatism, cash

In the battle between Tom Campbell and his conservative foes, score one for the foes as the Republican candidates sprint to the finish line and the chance to challenge Democratic stalwart Sen. Barbara Boxer in November.

After months of leading the Republican race for Senate, Mr. Campbell now trails former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina in at least two polls heading into the June 8 primary contest in California. Another candidate, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, remains in third place, albeit with double-digit support.

Mr. Campbell, running as a fiscal conservative and social moderate, has been taking fire on his right flank for weeks. Conservative groups have targeted him for his support of gay marriage, abortion and tax increases. Mrs. Fiorina, who opposes abortion and gay marriage, has raised her own profile in a mid-May television ad blitz.

“I think a lot of people have finally realized that Tom Campbell is not a conservative and barely a Republican,” said California Republican strategist Mike Spence. “People are finally focused on the race, and there’s a growing consensus that Tom Campbell can’t be the Republican nominee.”

Mr. DeVore and Mrs. Fiorina are running as conservatives, but Mrs. Fiorina, a millionaire, has the war chest to promote her candidacy in California’s expensive media markets. She has loaned her campaign $5.5 million to date, while Mr. Campbell has raised $2.6 million and Mr. DeVore $2.3 million, according to campaign finance reports filed Thursday.

The contrast was evident two weeks ago. While Mrs. Fiorina was able to air two statewide television ads, the Campbell campaign instead released a mailing, opting to conserve its resources until the final, critical week before the primary.

The Fiorina campaign promotes its cash advantage as a virtue, arguing that she alone among Republican candidates has the money to defeat Mrs. Boxer in November.

“In a state as massive as California, it takes resources to communicate with the voters, and Carly is the only candidate who has that,” said Fiorina spokeswoman Amy Thoma.

Meanwhile, Mr. Campbell made a plea for donations in an e-mail to supporters Sunday, saying they must not “allow this election to be bought.”

“I can win if I have the resources to communicate in these final nine days. If I don’t, we will not win,” said Mr. Campbell. “This election literally hinges on your response. Never has it mattered more.”

Entering his third decade in California politics, Mr. Campbell is hardly a stranger to voters. He served five terms as a congressman from Silicon Valley and two years as finance director for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. In 2000, he won the Republican Senate nomination, but was defeated in the general election by his Democratic opponent, Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Mr. Campbell is also the hands-down brainiac of the field: He taught economics at Stanford University and served as dean of the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley.

“Rarely does one find such a combination of academic achievement, government service and expertise in a field that is critically important during this time of economic crisis,” the Oakland Tribune said in its May 23 endorsement of Mr. Campbell.

His opponents have blasted his support of a one-year, 32-cent gas-tax increase and a temporary tax hike to balance the state budget. Mr. Campbell, unlike his primary rivals, also has refused to sign a no-taxes pledge. He said elected officials need the flexibility to respond to emergencies.

The Campbell campaign, meanwhile, calls Mrs. Fiorina a “read-my-lips conservative,” pointing out that she’s never run for office previously and voted only occasionally in elections.

“He’s a fiscal conservative, but he’s also had to govern and cast votes,” said Campbell spokesman Jamie Fisfis. “She doesn’t vote. She says, ’I promise I won’t raise your taxes,’ but she’s never voted for most of her adult life.”

Mr. Campbell does hold one trump card: Polls show that he’s the only Republican candidate who would beat Mrs. Boxer in a hypothetical matchup. A University of Southern California/Los Angeles Times survey released Saturday showed him leading Mrs. Boxer by a margin of 45 percent to 38 percent, while Mrs. Fiorina trails the Democratic incumbent 44 percent to 38 percent.

The same poll found Mrs. Fiorina ahead of Mr. Campbell by a margin of 38 percent to 23 percent. Mr. DeVore garnered 16 percent among those surveyed.

The DeVore campaign could prove to be the election’s wild card. Mr. DeVore can’t match his rivals in name recognition or fundraising, but he does hold the lion’s share of support among those in the “tea party” movement. A strong tea party showing on election day could conceivably split the conservative vote and allow Mr. Campbell to eke out a win.

Analysts agree that Mrs. Boxer appears vulnerable this year, given her weak favorability ratings and the strong anti-incumbent mood among voters. The USC/Los Angeles Times survey showed that only 34 percent of voters surveyed said they wanted to see her re-election, while 49 percent said they preferred someone else.

As for the state’s gubernatorial race, a poll released Saturday night shows that former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman has stopped her recent plunge to again take a large lead among Republicans.

Mrs. Whitman leads state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner by 53 percent to 29 percent.

But in a general election contest against the likely Democratic nominee, Attorney General Jerry Brown, she trails 44 percent to 38 percent in a race she once led, the survey showed.

• This article is based in part on wire service reports.