Lincoln’s seat in play as 11 states vote on ‘Super Tuesday’

There’s nothing secondary about Tuesday’s primary.

Parties in 11 states are selecting their November candidates in pivotal, nationally tracked races, prompting politicos to dub June 8 the “Super Tuesday of 2010.”

For six months, both parties have attempted to read the political tea leaves based on a handful of isolated elections. For example, Democrat Mark Critz’s win in the open Pennsylvania House race May 18 had liberal pundits declaring that the Republican Party was clearly on the ropes - until Republican Charles Djou won the Hawaii special election four days later.

Tuesday’s contests promise to provide the parties with their most comprehensive data yet on this year’s most-watched political trends, including the impact of the “tea party” movement, the strength of the anti-incumbent tide, the vulnerability of the Democratic Party and the rise of the Republicans.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas Democrat, could become the third sitting senator this year to lose her seat in an intraparty contest, thus reinforcing notions about the perils of being the establishment candidate. Or she could pull off the win, giving credence to those who say President Obama’s endorsement still resonates with voters.

Here are the most-watched races broken down by state:

- Arkansas: Mrs. Lincoln was forced into a primary runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter after coming up short of a majority in the May 18 primary. She received 45 percent of the vote to Mr. Halter’s 43 percent, and like that race, the runoff race is too close to call. The moderate Mrs. Lincoln may be in a no-win situation: She’s too liberal for the tea party crowds that have hounded her at public appearances, but labor unions and progressives, who are more prevalent in Democratic primaries, say she’s too pro-business and have thrown their support behind Mr. Halter.

- California: Conservative or liberal, establishment or maverick, money still talks. That’s the message from California as billionaire Meg Whitman leads mere multimillionaire state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Likewise, Carly Fiorina’s recent spending spree has catapulted her into the lead over former Rep. Tom Campbell and state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the race for the Republican Senate nomination. In House races, ex-Rep. Richard Pombo is locked in a tight primary race in his effort to return to the House.

- Iowa: The strength of the tea party movement comes into play in the Republican gubernatorial primary as ex-Gov. Terry Branstad squares off against tea party favorite Bob Vander Plaats. However, Mr. Branstad has won the endorsement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and the latest poll shows him with a double-digit lead.

- Maine: A whopping seven Republicans and four Democrats are running to replace term-limited Gov. John Baldacci, but interest in the race is low: One recent survey found that 42 percent of voters couldn’t name a single candidate - and most Mainers remain undecided. It could be a case of candidate overload.

- Montana: With no Senate or governor’s races this year, the entire political focus is on the state’s lone House seat. Rep. Denny Rehberg has his hands full with two Republican challengers, including tea party pick Mark French, while four Democrats are vying for their party’s nomination.

- Nevada: The Republican Senate primary could not be hotter or feistier. Amid squabbles over chickens, massages, RVs and airplanes, any one of the top three candidates could realistically pull off the win and take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in November. Gov. Jim Gibbons somehow won four years ago amid accusations of accosting a nightclub waitress and marital infidelity, but his re-election effort is notable only for its chutzpah. Trailing Brian Sandoval by double digits, Mr. Gibbons is likely to become the first Nevada governor to lose his party’s nomination. The winner takes on Mr. Reid’s son, Rory Reid, a Clark County commissioner, in November.

- New Jersey: A surge of Republican candidates, fueled in part by the tea party movement, are making trouble for incumbents of both political stripes, but also sparking interest in the primary election. All 13 House incumbents are running for re-election, but with 29 Republicans vying for those seats, the newcomers could be in trouble. One example: Former NFL lineman Jon Runyan is seeking the Republican nomination in a bid to face off against first-term Democrat John Adler.

- North Dakota: Democratic Sen. Byron L. Dorgan’s retirement puts the seat in play. Republican Gov. John Hoeven and Democratic state Sen. Tracy Potter are the prohibitive favorites to win their parties’ nominations, with Mr. Hoeven ahead in hypothetical November matchups.

- South Carolina: The race to replace Republican Gov. Mark Sanford turned ugly following accusations that state Rep. Nikki Haley, one of four GOP candidates, had engaged in extramarital affairs with two men, charges she and her husband strongly deny. Still, she leads in the polls and has the backing of the state’s tea party movement;

- South Dakota: Five Republicans are vying to take on Democrat Scott Heidepriem, a state senator, in the November governor’s race, replacing term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Rounds. Mr. Heidepriem, who doesn’t have a contested primary, made headlines by choosing a Republican as his running mate.

- Virginia: Those House Democrats who swept into office on Mr. Obama’s coattails may have trouble hanging on this year. The field is rife with tea party-backed Republican challengers - maybe too rife. For example, six Republicans are vying for the chance to take on Democratic Rep. Glenn Nye.