AFC preview

AFC CAPSULES

(Divisions in order of predicted finish)

EAST

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Last season: 11-5, second place

Coach: Bill Belichick, ninth season, 102-42

Story line: Nineteen of the 22 starters were part of the team that came close to being the first 19-0 champion in 2007. Only an overtime loss at the Jets kept them out of the playoffs in 2008 despite playing without star QB Tom Brady. If Belichick’s running back-by-committee approach works, look for the Patriots to return to the thick of title contention.

Key addition: QB Tom Brady (back after missing 15 games in 2008)

Why they might make the playoffs: Without three-time Super Bowl winner Brady, the Patriots just missed the postseason at 11-5. They should cruise to their seventh division title in nine years.

Why they might not make the playoffs: If Brady goes down again, they don’t have a capable replacement. They might really miss recently-traded defensive lineman Richard Seymour.

NEW YORK JETS

Last season: 9-7, third place

Coach: Rex Ryan, first season

Story line: Former Ravens defensive boss Ryan brought his attacking style and star linebacker Bart Scott with him to the Jets. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got the best in 2008 out of a running game that adds rookie Shonn Greene. Can a rookie coach and QB (Mark Sanchez) repeat the formula that worked so well in Baltimore last year?

Key addition: First-round QB Mark Sanchez

Why they might make the playoffs: Ryan is an inspirational leader for a team that was 8-3 last Nov. 29. Sanchez has the sparkle that fits the Big Apple. Ryan will rev up the defense.

Why they might not make the playoffs: The 1-4 collapse bred skepticism. Is Chansi Stuckey a worthy replacement for departed receiver Laveranues Coles?

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Last season: 11-5, first place

Coach: Tony Sparano, second season, 11-5

Story line: After going 1-15 in 2007, the Dolphins made a tremendous turnaround in 2008 but are likely to find their rightful place in the middle of the pack in 2009. They don’t have many marquee players to allow them to compete equally with the league’s elite.

Key addition: Linebacker Jason Taylor (back after being traded to Washington in 2008)

Why they might make the playoffs: They learned how to win as surprise division champs in 2008. Running back Ronnie Brown and receiver Ted Ginn are good weapons for reliable QB Chad Pennington.

Why they might not make the playoffs: They overachieved in 2008 with help from an easy schedule. They could easily start 0-3 in 2009. They won’t repeat a plus-17 turnover ratio.

BUFFALO BILLS

Last season: 7-9, fourth place

Coach: Dick Jauron, fourth season, 21-27

Story line: Tempestuous receiver Terrell Owens has been productive and under control in his first season with his previous three teams so he and Lee Evans could give foes fits. Playing without suspended tailback Marshawn Lynch for the first three games won’t help a shaky offensive line.

Key addition: Free agent receiver Terrell Owens

Why they might make the playoffs: Owens always makes the playoffs in his first year with a team. A healthy Aaron Schobel and rookie Aaron Maybin should fix the pass rush.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Owens is the only player on roster who was in the NFL when the Bills last reached the postseason (1999). The schedule ends: Patriots, at Falcons, Colts. Ouch.

NORTH

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Last season: 12-4, first place

Coach: Mike Tomlin, third season, 22-10

Story line: The Steelers were tested en route to their second title in four years, battling the Ravens for the division and winning three tough playoff games. However, only the 2004 Patriots have repeated since 1998. Standing pat isn’t usually a formula for repeating. Is this the year that Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes passes Hines Ward as Ben Roethlisberger’s top target?

Key addition: First-round pick defensive end Evander Hood

Why they might make the playoffs: They have the NFL’s best defense and one of just two QBs with multiple rings. They have seven games against teams that were 5-11 or worse in 2008.

Why they might not make the playoffs: If they somehow lose the AFC North to the Ravens, they could get edged out for a wild card. Cornerbacks could be an issue.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Last season: 11-5, second place

Coach: John Harbaugh, second season, 11-5

Story line: Does Baltimore’s recent roller-coaster ride (6-10, 13-3, 5-11, 11-5) continue? Was QB Joe Flacco lucky to play with this defense as a rookie or is he really special? When do defensive linchpins Ray Lewis (34) and Ed Reed (31) start acting their ages? Is Ray Rice ready to be a No. 1 back for a run-heavy offense?

Key addition: Free agent center Matt Birk

Why they might make the playoffs: The NFL’s No. 2 defense lost linebacker Bart Scott but added corner Domonique Foxworth and welcomed back nose tackle Kelly Gregg. Flacco is no longer a rookie.

Why they might not make the playoffs: It’s not easy to be grab a wild-card spot in the AFC. The offense lacks proven weapons other than 35-year-old wide receiver Derrick Mason.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Last season: 4-11-1, third place

Coach: Marvin Lewis, seventh season, 46-49-1

Story line: Four games over .500 during his first five years with the long-hapless Bengals, Lewis needed a 3-0 finish to win four games in 2008. QB Carson Palmer has been hurt for two of the past four years. Running back Cedric Benson needs to be a real threat to help out the quarterback.

Key addition: Free agent safety Roy Williams

Why they might make the playoffs: If Palmer stays healthy, Chad Johnson behaves, Laveranues Coles seamlessly replaces T.J. Houshmandzadeh and the defense doesn’t slip back noticeably.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Because they’re the Bengals, the team that couldn’t sign its suspect first-round pick until late August and always gambles on bad apples like Tank Johnson.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Last season: 4-12, fourth place

Coach: Eric Mangini, first season

Story line: After making the playoffs in his Jets debut in 2006 and starting 8-3 last year, Mangini got the boot and takes over a team that is 54-107 since returning to the NFL in 1999. The Browns were lousy on offense and defense in 2008 and haven’t added a major talent.

Key addition: First-round center Alex Mack

Why they might make the playoffs: Mangini turned a 4-12 Jets team into a wild card in 2008. QB Derek Anderson could recapture the magic he had during their 10-6 season of 2007.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Where to start? Cleveland couldn’t pass, run or stop the run in 2008. Mangini’s flurry of changes didn’t provide a true impact player.

SOUTH

TENNESEE TITANS

Last season: 13-3, first place

Coach: Jeff Fisher, 15th season, 128-102

Story line: Tennessee won three more games in 2008 than in 2007 but still lost its playoff opener. Since then, the Titans lost All-Pro defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, returner Chris Carr and starting receiver Brandon Jones while only adding defensive tackle Jovan Haye from Tampa Bay and rookies. How much longer can retread QB Kerry Collins, 36, keep winning?

Key addition: Free agent defensive tackle Jovan Haye

Why they might make the playoffs: The Chris Johnson/LenDale White backfield duo gets it done behind a line that also allowed just 12 sacks. The defense has standouts in each unit.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Fisher, the longest-tenured NFL coach, has never made the postseason three straight years as would be the case in 2009. The passing game is impotent.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Last season: 12-4, second place

Coach: Jim Caldwell, first season

Story line: How will the Colts adjust to the retirement of beloved coach Tony Dungy and the elevation of assistant Caldwell? How much will QB Peyton Manning, still a superstar at 33, miss departed receiver Marvin Harrison? Can the Colts go 12-4 again with the AFC’s worst running game and the division’s worst run defense?

Key addition: Guard Ryan Lilja (back after missing most of 2008 with a knee injury)

Why they might make the playoffs: They always do, having last missed postseason in 2001. The line, which allowed just 14 sacks, is better with Lilja’s return from a knee injury.

Why they might not make they playoffs: If Manning goes down for the first time in his 12-year career, untested Jim Sorgi would be the QB. They don’t run or stop the run well.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Last season: 8-8, third place

Coach: Gary Kubiak, fourth season, 22-26

Story line: General manager Rick Smith scored by trading for QB Matt Schaub and drafting running back Steve Slaton in consecutive seasons, but the Texans were inconsistent. They upset Tennessee in Week 15 but struggled with Detroit, Oakland and Cleveland. How many passes does receiver Andre Johnson have to catch to win?

Key addition: Free agent DE Antonio Smith

Why they might make the playoffs: Pass rusher Mario Williams and linebacker DeMeco Ryans are blossoming stars. The offense ranked third in 2008. The schedule is relatively favorable.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Top cornerback Dunta Robinson held out all preseason from a defense that was 22nd in 2008. And they’re in the same division as the Titans and Colts.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Last season: 5-11, fourth place

Coach: Jack Del Rio, seventh season, 50-46

Story line: Del Rio’s job could be on the line if he repeats last season’s collapse. QB David Garrard, who seemed ready to bust out in 2007, was very average in 2008. Is new receiver Torry Holt done at 33? Can Maurice Jones-Drew thrive minus former tailback partner Fred Taylor?

Key addition: Free agent receiver Torry Holt

Why they might make the playoffs: The offensive line, which allowed 42 sacks during an injury-riddled 2008, is healthy again. Jones-Drew is a special talent.

Why they might not make the playoffs: The once-elite defense only has two such players left: defensive tackle John Henderson and corner Rashean Mathis. They could start 0-4 and never recover.

WEST

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Last season: 8-8, first place

Coach: Norv Turner, third season, 19-13

Story line: Is this the year that the Chargers, division champs in four of the past five years, finally get over the hump and reach the Super Bowl? Does running back LaDainian Tomlinson’s crash in 2008 mean he’s done at 30? Will the return of linebacker Shawne Merriman and the additions of linebacker Kevin Burnett and defensive end Larry English restore a defense that crashed in 2008?

Key addition: First-round defensive end Larry English

Why they might make the playoffs: How can the Chargers not make it in a division with the Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs? QB Philip Rivers, tight end Antonio Gates and nosetackle Jamal Williams are studs.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Rivers and Merriman get hurt while facing a schedule that includes the Steelers, Ravens, Titans, Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Redskins and Dolphins.

DENVER BRONCOS

Last season: 8-8, second place

Coach: Josh McDaniels, first season

Story line: How will Team Turmoil survive the purge of longtime coach Mike Shanahan and star QB Jay Cutler and their replacement by the baby-faced McDaniels and the lightly-regarded Kyle Orton? Can safety Brian Dawkins, 35, salvage a defense that was ugly beyond Champ Bailey?

Key addition: First-round running back Knowshon Moreno

Why they might make the playoffs: New tailbacks Knowshon Moreno and LaMont Jordan are upgrades on last year’s by committee bunch.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Top receiver Brandon Marshall is suspended. They face the formidable NFC East and AFC North. Their returning defensive players recorded just 16 sacks.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last season: 2-14, fourth place

Coach: Todd Haley, first season

Story line: There’s nowhere to go but up after the worst season in the franchise’s 49-year history. Longtime general manager Carl Peterson resigned and coach Herm Edwards was fired. Owner Clark Hunt hired Scott Pioli from New England to run the front office and Todd Haley, offensive coordinator of 2008 surprise Arizona, to guide the team.

Key addition: QB Matt Cassel (trade with New England)

Why they might make the playoffs: Haley and Cassel could follow the pattern of unproven coach-quarterback tandems that worked in Atlanta and Baltimore in 2008. Larry Johnson is a fine running back.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Adding linebackers Zach Thomas, 36, and Mike Vrabel, 34, and rookie defensive end Tyson Jackson won’t truly change a defense that couldn’t stop anyone in 2008.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Last season: 5-11, third place

Coach: Tom Cable, second season, 4-8

Story line: Does anyone believe that a team that was just 24-72 the past six seasons will be righted by newly acquired defensive end Richard Seymour and rookie receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey? Only winless Detroit and Seattle also finished in the bottom six on offense and defense in 2008.

Key addition: Defensive end Richard Seymour (acquired from Patriots for 2011 first-round pick)

Why they might make the playoffs: That’s just not going to happen.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Because the NFL’s worst team of the past six years will continue to be one of its worst minus a real talent infusion.